Quinnipiac (1/29-2/2, registered voters):
Lee Fisher (D): 42
Rob Portman (R): 27Jennifer Brunner (D): 38
Rob Portman (R): 28Lee Fisher (D): 41
Mary Taylor (R): 27Jennifer Brunner (D): 38
Mary Taylor (R): 26
(MoE: ±2.9%)Rob Portman (R): 33
Mary Taylor (R): 11
(MoE: ±5.1%)Lee Fisher (D): 18
Jennifer Brunner (D): 16
Tim Ryan (D): 14
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Quinnipiac polls a whole bunch of different permutations on the Ohio Senate race, including the primary races, and you gotta like what you see here. Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner both lead ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman by double digits. The only missing element is head-to-heads involving Rep. Tim Ryan, who also seems likely to run (and they do poll him in the primary)… but judging by the similarity between Fisher and Brunner’s numbers, it seems like the candidates are running more as ‘generic D’ and ‘generic R’ right now, and he’d do just as well.
The unknowns are very high even in the general, but they’re catastrophically high in the primary heats, with the majority of the electorate in the “don’t know” camp right now. This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn’t publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)
A few weeks ago, PPP tried out Fisher, Brunner, and Ryan against Portman, and Portman won all three of those tests, although not by particularly large margins. So this Q-poll, in and of itself, shouldn’t be taken as a promise of a pickup; this is going to be a hard fought race for the next two years. (H/t Leftist Addiction.)
i saw somewhere that gov strickland is encouraging lee fisher to run – and he seems like a pretty good candidate. but on this website, tim ryan seems like the more popular guy. is there much to choose between them?
If even Lee Fischer, who lost to Bob Taft 6 years ago, is leading Portman and Brunner and Ryan not doing too badly as well.
First, thanks for the frequent coverage of this very important race for Ohio. I’ve written (and often extensively) about it several times since Voinovich announced his retirement and definitely see Mary Taylor in the mix repeatedly – including links to others who talk about Taylor with interest. Here’s one post I wrote today which, by the way, links to and was in part inspired by SSP.
About Mary Taylor, you wrote:
You wrote, “This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn’t publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)”
Based on the sources I read and the people I speak with, Mary Taylor is not “little-known,” has been mentioned many times and there is interest in her (and in Jennifer Brunner) from an identity politics perspective – Ohio has never had a female senator in the US Congress. However, the strongest thing going for Mary is the fact that she (and Brunner) have won statewide recently – which is not something any other candidate that’s being discussed actually can say except Fisher, who really ran with Strickland.
Add to this the fact that Portman hasn’t run for anything in Ohio since 2004, let alone statewide, and that “don’t know” looks like an even bigger hurdle (read: money money money).
I know you’ve been at this a while and have your sources. But I think you might need to expand beyond them. While I know and can see – like anyone else – that the Ohio Republican Party and the more flaming red bloggers refuse to give her credence and want her to stand down and sit tight until they tell her she can move, that tone and direction is very at odds with what’s going to win over the Ohio independents. I also just think that the GOP’s bench for this one is weak, no matter how nice Portman might be portrayed.
Thanks.
is talked about on blogs, it doesn’t mean she’s well known. And if she is well known and interested, and she pulls 11% in a poll, that’s REALLY bad news for her.
I stand by my assertion.
The House passed the bill 290-135 today.
Breakdown:
Republicans were 40 for and 135 against
Democrats were 250 for and 2 against
Bright and Marshall were thw two Dem nays…. big surprise. Still, this kills the idiotic MSM message that it’s the Dems who are divided.
where the GOP can really field a top-tier candidate; Portman’s got some obvious weaknesses (Trade Rep for Bush running in the Rust Belt), but he’s still overall a very credible and photogenic challenger.
This and Florida will be the really tight big-ticket races (unless Crist enters Florida, in which case Florida drops off the chart).
Gov. Strickland is very safe in his re-election bid against likely opponent Kasich. Per Quinnipiac:
Ted Strickland (D): 56
John Kasich (R): 26
they also polled former senator Mike DeWine, who Sherrod Brown waxed by 12% back in 2006.
Ted Strickland (D): 54
Mike DeWine (R): 32
A little bit stronger based on name recognition, but for a former Lt. Governor and US Senator, those are unelectable numbers. I doubt he runs.
Together with the Senate numbers it’s pretty clear Ohio’s blue turn recently has not ebbed. The wingers were making some noise about getting Strickland, and he’s usually mentioned as slightly vulnerable by forecasters.
No full story yet but it’s a headline at CNN.com Hope she’s ok. Thankfully if the worst happened her legacy will carry on thanks to last fall’s election.
From Daily Kos today.
Looks like nobody’s got a clear advantage, even if Jim Bunning’s a senile dud.